Time-of-use tariffs: what to move, and what not to bother moving

Every figure on this site uses an average rate, because that is what the published data gives. On a time-of-use tariff there is no single rate — and the difference between the cheapest and dearest hour is often larger than the difference between the cheapest and dearest US state.

A grid of tiles lit at different intensities, standing for the same electricity priced differently at different hours.

What a time-of-use rate actually is

A flat tariff charges the same per kilowatt-hour whenever you use it. A time-of-use tariff divides the day into periods — typically off-peak, mid-peak and on-peak — and charges differently in each. The peak window is usually late afternoon into evening, when everyone gets home and air conditioning, cooking and laundry coincide.

The ratio between peak and off-peak varies enormously by utility, from about 1.5:1 to more than 4:1. That ratio is the only number that decides whether shifting your usage is worth any effort at all, and it is on your rate schedule rather than your bill.

11¢19¢32¢11¢00:0006:0012:0018:0024:00EV chargingWater heaterDishwasher / dryer
Illustrative of a common 3:1 residential structure — your own windows and rates are on your utility's rate schedule, and they are the only ones that matter. The bars below show the loads that move without anyone changing how they live.

What is worth shifting

The test is simple: can the load be moved in time without anybody noticing? If yes, and it is large, shift it. If it has to happen when it happens, no tariff will change that.

Annual costs at the flat US average of 18.34¢/kWh, for scale. On a time-of-use tariff the shiftable rows are the ones where that number can be reduced without changing anything you do.

LoadShiftable?NotesA year
EV charging (Level 2 home)Yes — completelyThe single best candidate. The car does not care when it charges, only that it is full by morning.$649
Electric water heaterYes — mostlyA tank stores heat. Heating it off-peak and coasting through peak works, and needs only a timer.$499
Electric clothes dryerYesNothing about a dryer requires it to run at six in the evening.$125
DishwasherYesMost have a delay-start button that nobody uses.$45
Pool pumpYes — completelyFiltration only needs a certain number of hours a day, not particular hours.$396
Hot tubPartlyThe setpoint can be dropped through peak and recovered off-peak, if the controller allows it.$602
Central air conditionerPartlyPre-cooling before peak and coasting through it works in a well-insulated house and not in a leaky one.$421
Electric ovenNoDinner happens at dinner time.$62
RefrigeratorNoIt runs when it runs.$77
LED televisionNoPeak hours are exactly when people watch television.$31

The arithmetic of pre-cooling

Pre-cooling means running the air conditioning hard before the peak window and letting the house drift up through it. It works because a building is a thermal store — but only if it is a good one. In a well-insulated house the temperature rises slowly and you coast through four hours comfortably. In a leaky one it rises within the hour and you end up running the system during peak anyway, having also paid to over-cool beforehand.

The honest test is empirical and costs nothing: on a hot day, switch the cooling off and time how long the indoor temperature takes to rise three degrees. Under an hour and pre-cooling will not work for you. Over three and it will.

Should you switch to a time-of-use tariff at all?

It depends entirely on your shape, not your total. Two households using identical kilowatt-hours can end up hundreds of dollars apart on the same tariff.

  • Good fit: an EV, an electric water heater, a pool, nobody home during the day, or a willingness to run laundry at night.
  • Poor fit: someone home all day in a hot climate, electric cooking at conventional meal times, and no large shiftable load.
  • Check first: most utilities publish your own interval data. Download a month of it and see what fraction of your usage already falls in the peak window — that single number answers the question better than any rule of thumb.

A worked example

A household with an EV, an electric water heater and a pool, on a tariff charging 32¢ at peak and 11¢ off-peak — a fairly typical 3:1 spread.

Illustrative rates, real consumption figures from this site. The water heater is shown at 80% shiftable because a tank cannot coast through every peak period.

LoadA yearAll at peak (32¢)Shifted off-peak (11¢)Saved
EV charging (Level 2 home)3,541 kWh$1,133$390$744
Electric water heater2,720 kWh$870$413$457
Pool pump2,160 kWh$691$238$454
Electric clothes dryer682 kWh$218$75$143
Dishwasher244 kWh$78$27$51
Total$1,849

Nothing in that example requires anyone to change how they live. The car charges overnight because it was told to, the water heater runs on a timer, the pool filters at night, and the dishwasher gets a delay-start pressed once. That is the realistic upper end of what tariff optimisation is worth — substantial, and entirely mechanical.

Why this site quotes a flat rate

The EIA publishes average revenue per kilowatt-hour by state, which is a blend across every customer and every tariff. It is the right figure for comparing states and for costing an appliance in general terms, and it cannot see time-of-use pricing at all. If you are on a time-of-use rate, use your own peak and off-peak numbers in the calculators here — the arithmetic is the same, only the price changes. How to get your effective rate off a bill is here.

Questions

Is a time-of-use tariff cheaper?
Only if you can move usage out of the peak window. The tariff itself is not cheaper — it is differently priced, with the off-peak discount paid for by a higher peak rate. Households with an EV, an electric water heater or a pool usually gain; households that are home all day in a hot climate usually lose.
What should I run at night on a time-of-use rate?
EV charging first, by a wide margin, then the water heater on a timer, the pool pump, the dishwasher and the dryer. Those five are shiftable without changing anything about how you live, and together they are a large share of a typical bill.
Does pre-cooling my house actually work?
In a well-insulated house, yes. Time how long your home takes to rise three degrees with the cooling off — if it is under an hour, the building will not hold the cool long enough for pre-cooling to help, and you will pay to over-cool for nothing.
What is a demand charge?
A fee based on your single highest short-interval draw in the month rather than your total consumption. Where one applies, running several large appliances at the same moment is penalised even if every kilowatt-hour was off-peak, so spreading loads out matters as much as timing them.

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